胡雪岩

快科技8月24日消息，近日，蔚来联合创始人、总裁秦力洪在公开活动上作出判断，预计2026年内国内乘用车市场的纯电车型渗透率就会超过50%，纯电取代燃油成为市场绝对主流的行业终局正在以远超之前预期的速度加速到来。秦力洪在现场进一步明确预测，就在今年当中的某一个自然月，纯电车型的市场占比就会正式跨过50%的临界点，纯电车型成为车市销量绝对主流的趋势已经完全不可逆转。

B | 推动这一判断的核心支撑数据之一，是今年7月蔚来品牌在国内8个省份的42座城市里，单月销量已经同时超过了奔驰、宝马、奥迪组成的德系豪华三强，在不少核心高端市场已经站稳了脚跟。    JERUSALEM -- It's a far cry from the usual hustle and bustle, so typical of Jerusalem's Old City.The steps of the Damascus Gate have been cleared out. Gone are the fruit and sumac vendors. And inside the Old City: rows and rows of shops have shut down."This is the worst days we've ever seen in our lives. Even when the corona[virus] was here it was better than this," said Adnan Jaffa, who runs the Jaffar Sweets shop. "Because of the war ... the situation. In five minutes we're going to close because there is nothing to do."For those who know the Old City, it's an eerie place to be. Even the Church of the Holy Sepulchre -- where Christ is believed to have been buried and resurrected -- was empty on Sunday but for a handful of worshippers. It felt like we were being given a private tour of one of the world's holiest and most visited sites.Ehab Barakat, who was cycling through the deserted Old City, was one of the few customers out there on the city's streets.Asked about the increasing tensions, he said: "We hope it will be quiet."He added, "This is the time to be united. One."But the latest cycle of violence has come has no surprise, he said."The new government of Israel … you would be stupid if you would not guess what is going to happen. And we are not stupid. We were just waiting for the time.""The people get so tied … like a balloon. With a lot of air inside. And then it will…"His English may have failed him -- but it seemed clear what he meant.Israeli police now stand at the entrance to the Damascus Gate, occasionally searching young men. Orthodox Jews occasionally wander through the Old City to worship at the Western Wall. But there is none of the fervour which people associate with Jerusalem. It's been replaced by a strange quiet.In the words of Abushadi Sinjlawi, another shopkeeper we found closing early for the day, "The city is under lockdown."But away from the eerie quiet and melancholy atmosphere in the Old City, the situation is tense. Jerusalem is said to be the most heavily policed city in the country, and that will likely remain the case as the war in the south rages on.Checkpoints have been set up across East Jerusalem. And videos are spreading online appearing to show the harassment of Palestinians at the hands of the police. Cars are being stopped and searched. There are videos of apparent police beatings. In sporadic, individual incidents where locals have clashed with police, the response appears to have been brute force.Already at least 50 Palestinians have been killed in East Jerusalem and the West Bank since the war broke out -- that's more than the highest ever monthly total since the UN began keeping records in 2005.。更早之前，秦力洪就已经代表蔚来对外明确表态，蔚来未来绝对不会推出任何增程式车型，整个品牌的产品路线将始终坚定不移走纯电汽车赛道，不会为了短期销量随大流蹭增程的风口。按照秦力洪的解释，以蔚来团队现有的技术积累和整车研发能力，如果真的想要入局增程赛道，只需要20个月的开发周期就能拿出完全满足量产标准的成熟增程车型，做增程在技术层面根本不存在任何门槛，不想做从来都不是做不出来。秦力洪在这次公开采访中还给所有人算了一笔非常直白的产业账，平均每台车上多装一整套增程系统，额外要付出的物料制造成本差不多在2万元左右，如果按照100万辆车的年销规模来计算，全部车型搭载增程系统要多花出来的额外总成本就能达到200亿元。

C | 在他看来，掏出这200亿元去覆盖所有增程车型的额外系统成本，完全不如把这笔钱直接投到换电站的布局建设上，最后换来的用户补能体验提升和品牌长期价值收益，要比卖增程车赚的短期利润高得多。秦力洪同时提到，前几年不少车企靠增程车型快速起量赚来的快钱，本质上本来就不属于行业应该赚的长期收益，眼下随着市场竞争进入白热化阶段，当初靠增程这条捷径埋下的所有隐患，现在所有选择走这条路的玩家都要慢慢偿还之前欠下的成本债，行业发展从来不存在真正可以抄的近路。